The Command Tech: Threat Assessment

    The Commander format has started to boom at our local game stores. Many of these new Commander players are coming in with a lot of duel experience from anywhere between hardcore tournaments, casual games, or extensive play testing. However, most of these players do not have a lot of experience with a multiplayer format and may fail to see the real threat that’s on the table. What is the real threat? Who are the bad guys? Who are the “good” guys? These are some of the questions we will answer in today’s article.

Knowing the General

    Even though Commander is a casual format, the goal of the game, usually, is still to beat your opponents. The first step at identifying the threat is knowing and understanding what your General or Commander is capable of handling and what generals your opponents are using. The General plays a big part in our multiplayer format since we build decks around them most of the time. Take a look at the a game with the following commanders.

           

           

In this game, you can assess that the early game threats are Zur and Prossh as they usually play the fast combo archetype. Najeela is more of a mid game combat centric combo finish deck while Teferi is going for a combo-control playstyle. If you are the player using Najeela, you may not have enough ways to deal with the fast combo decks. It might actually be better for you to partner up with Teferi, quietly build your board presence and strike them when they least expect it.

As you can see, knowing what each commander can do can help you build alliances or focus your attention on who the threat may be in which part of the game it is.

Identifying the Threat

Taken from Abe Sargent’s 2014 article: Threat Assessment 101, he points out the following misses and who you should actually be looking out for.

Threat Assessment No-Nos:

• It’s not the player with the counterspell deck.
• It’s not always the player with all of the answers.
• It’s not the player with the Stone Rains, bounce or other tempo effects.
• It’s not always the player with the most powerful permanent on the table.

Check Out These Threats:

• Show me the Mana
• Mr Nice Guy
• Combo-tastic
• Overly Resilient is Death
• Cards, cards cards, and more cards in hand

The Illusion of a Threat

    Many players, myself included, focus too much of our attention on the blue-based control strategy. I mean who wouldn’t? Counterspell decks are annoying especially when you want to be playing those awesome Sphinx’s Revelations. In a duel setting, this strategy is very powerful since your stopping your opponents from doing anything. You can literally just bury them in value. Look at how well positioned Blue-White Control decks are in formats like Modern and Legacy. However, this strategy has been weakened in our multiplayer format. Counterspell effects can only stop a single spell and the player using this strategy will find themselves unable to answer all of the threats on the table. On the flipside, if people place too much focus on the annoying counterspell decks, you might miss out on the real threat that other players are starting to build. Countering spells or having answers to threats are both good strategies for you to stay alive however, it won’t really help you win the game.

    Then there are people who focus on the player with a lot of answers. I play a big and nasty creature and an opponent uses Swords to Plowshares on it. A reasonable move. Then that same person proceeds to casts Hero’s Downfall on another player’s Planeswalker while at the same time plays an Oblivion stone as an insurance policy. They are definitely playing a strong, disruptive deck. However, just like those blue-based control players, playing these ‘not to lose’ cards will not help you win the game. All they do is prolong the match til someone can play cards that can win them the game. They will play cards that are immune to removal or play cards that if removed won’t affect them as much. Removal is still very critical in any deck however, we should also take a good look at the board state and ask ourselves, is that Emrakul the biggest threat on the field? Probably is, but do you or anyone else have things to handle it? If yes, don’t always take it upon yourself to be everyone’s savior. Unless, of course, you countered or killed a critical card from Emrakul’s owner and he’s giving you a death stare. Then maybe you’d want to take the initiative before he smashes your face in.

    It’s true that Emrakul can 4-shot a player however, if another player has Razaketh and a million creatures they can easily chump block the Emrakul and when his or her turn comes up, he or she can just combo off and finish the rest of the table. Saving your removal for this instance is a better way of using your resources and can give you a more political edge in the game.

This is How the Game Ends

In commander, the player who can produce the most mana and can more efficiently use those mana has the highest chance of winning the game. The Command Zone Podcast also confirms this theory which you can watch and listen here. This is why cards like Sol Ring and Mana Crypt played on the first 3 turns of the game is back breaking. It’s also the same with players who can ramp up to 10 lands by turn 4. These players are the real threat since they can unleash the majority of their big flashy win cons in no time. I would go after the player with the most mana producing potential with a weak boardstate versus another player who can only produce a small amount of mana but with a few strong permanents.

I also distrust a player who seem to give everyone a benefit. Consider a game where someone plays a Howling Mine, Unifying Theory, Horn of Greed and Veteran Explorer. You might say to yourself, this is awesome since I can easily get to the cards I want to win the game. Although this is not a bad thing on it’s own, the likelihood is that this player will have more ways to capitalize on these benefits and can win the game faster that you can. Playing ‘nice’ is a legitimate style of winning. It can help you stay longer in the game until you can out value your opponents. Don’t let these players hide behind their spells. Hit them!

    There are also some decks that run subtle combos and go off when no one notices them. A good example of this strategy is the deck I played in the Play2Learn Commander League. The commander I used was Jhoira, Weatherlight Captain. The game plan was to play cards like Helm of Awakening which helps reduce the cost of any spell. On the next turn play Words of Wind which forces all players to return a permanent to owner’s hand replacing one of my draw step or trigger. Separately these two cards are not much of a combo however, when I pair those cards with Jhoira and a few one mana cost rocks like Sol Ring and Mana Vault, I can force my opponents to return all of their permanents to their hands while producing infinite mana and infinite draw triggers. Being able to identify these as threats is critical. Don’t be caught up in a game such that you forget to check on a deck that can drop Food Chain and win instantly. One player at Magus Games plays a consistent turn 3 or 4 prossh infinite damage combo style. While powerful and hard to disrupt, the combo actually has many holes where you can capitalize. For example, if there are no blue decks to counter the food chain, players can still opt to destroy the Food Chain while Prossh is still on the stack. Alternatively, the Prossh player has to show they actually have a follow up considering Prossh does NOT have haste and possibly can’t kill THIS TURN. Identifying these holes is also integral in maximizing your knowledge on the levels of threat.

    Another issue I notice is how people tend to ignore opponents with difficult-to-answer threats. Due to the nature of Commander, decks tend to have a lot of answers to artifacts and creatures respectfully. However, there are just so few answers when it comes to enchantments or other permanents that may have hexproof or are indestructible. If you waste your Council’s Judgement on other things, you might regret it when something more important actually comes into play like an Iona. Don’t ignore those permanents just because they might be smaller or is not the current threat. They will turn into a difficult threat at a later time.

    Last but not the least, card advantage. Specifically the number of cards in an opponent’s hand. A hand with a lot of cards means a lot of options. Just like a what a friend of mine (Francis Matic) would normally say when asked how many cards he has in hand, “I have 7 cards and 7 counterspells in hand.” Although this might not really be true, having these options allowed him to position himself properly, play cards after a board wipe and enough cards to still answer threats. In this instance, force him to use these cards. Play some discard spells to reduce his advantage and get him back to reasonable levels. Going back to our lesson in threat assessment, having 20 cards in hand with a Reliquary Tower in play is a definite threat. This usually occurs in Blue-white decks where they want to get as many options as possible and prepare a “combo” of their own. A typical occurrence would be casting Approach the Second Sun on one turn, then using massive draw spells to redraw it next turn instead of the supposed 7 turns later. With 20 cards in hand, most likely they would be able to protect this strategy with counterspells or lock down spells or board wipes.